India became a bigger importer of Australian coking coal than China in 2018, according to S&P Global Commodity Insights data, and Australian producers see that trend strengthening.Ĭoronado Global Resources Inc.
"Chinese coal imports from Mongolia have lifted significantly in the last 12 months, even with COVID-19 impacts limiting cross-border transport - and they're building out more railways between Mongolia and China to boost those numbers," he added. "There will still be a market for low-sulfur, high-quality premium coking coal from Australia in China given its blast furnaces are designed around that, but it's tough for us to see how exports could sustainably go back to what they were before the ban," the Commonwealth Bank of Australia's mining and energy commodities research director Vivek Dhar said in an interview.
Most of the volume will go to India, despite China having started buying Australian coal again in February after unofficially banning such imports in October 2020.Ĭhina's coking coal imports have peaked, according to the Australian government's latest Resources and Energy Quarterly issued April 3.Īustralian producers would prefer a long-term offtake contract with a steelmaker in India over one in China, which stopped trading with them during the unofficial ban period, AME Research Managing Director Lloyd Hain said in an interview. Receive daily email alerts, subscriber notes & personalize your experience.Īustralia's resource and energy export revenue is forecast to hit a record A$464 billion ($310 billion) in fiscal 2022-23 (July-June), A$5 billion higher than the government forecast in December, due to an anticipated lift in metallurgical coal and iron ore earnings and a weaker-than-expected exchange rate against the US dollar.Īfter both metallurgical and thermal coal prices rode the surge in energy prices in 2022 stemming from Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the Australian government sees its metallurgical coal exports rising to 172 million mt by FY 2027-28 from 163 million mt in FY 2021-22.
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